Tesla Likely To Beat Estimates, But Bumpy Ride Ahead

As the market prepares for Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) to release its third quarter earnings for FY13 on November 5, investors will be focusing on key metrics and the company’s guidance to see where the stock is headed. The fourth quarter is crucial as domestic auto sales are typically the highest due to the holiday season.

In the three months since its last quarterly performance was unveiled, Tesla has captivated investors and analysts, with its stock price rising around 30%. Consensus estimates for its earnings and revenues have been revised and re-revised, but the company’s underlying potential and challenges faced by it still remain.

One thing is clear: There is no shortage of demand for the Model S, and recent data suggests that the interest is not just from buyers looking for fuel savings. In a recent report published by Forbes, Tesla’s Model S was the bestselling car this year in the nation’s top two most affluent neighborhoods in California.

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Tesla Motors: Fluctuating Between Failure And Success

Tesla Motors’ (TSLA) shares took a hit last Wednesday following the release of a viral video on the internet in which a Tesla Model S caught fire after colliding with a metallic object. Tesla’s stock price fell around 6% to $181 that day, as analysts questioned the viability of the company’s battery technology and its future growth prospects. The stock fell a further 4% to $172 the following day on news that Robert Baird & Co., a financial services firm, had downgraded its target price for the stock citing execution risks.

However, the stock did make its way back up to $181 on Friday, following Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s statement that Tesla cars are in fact much safer to operate than conventional gasoline vehicles, and that the battery fire was an isolated incident caused by the rupture of one of the car’s battery cells.

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Electrifying Performance By Tesla: All Charged Up

It goes without saying that Tesla Motors (TSLA) is no ordinary company. You can’t really be considered ‘ordinary’ if you’re manufacturing the next generation of human transport vehicles – and even market analysts agree. They’re calling Tesla a technology company, rather than a conventional automaker. We’ll leave that discussion for another day, because right now Tesla has our attention for entirely different reasons.

Tesla stock is up 460% year-to-date, while sales are expected to grow fourfold to around 21,000 units by the end of 2013. Even though the mean market consensus for its stock price is around $155, Deutsche Bank (DB) recently upgraded it to $200. The Germans must be on to something, as Tesla’s stock is already trading at $185, at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 194x.

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Standard & Poor’s Thanksgiving Gift to Tesla Motors

Standard & Poor’s equity research division has just revised its outlook on Tesla Motors (TSLA), and upgraded its rating on the stock from ‘sell’ to ‘neutral’, with a $130 price target. At the close of trading on November 27, the last session before Thanksgiving, Tesla shares were trading at about $127, with a one-year forward price to earnings multiple of 84x.

In the past few days, a number of sell side analysts have moved to either revise or reiterate their rating on Tesla Motors, with a wide range of views. Dan Galves at Deutsche Bank maintains his favorable view on the stock, giving it a buy rating with a target price of $200, citing a favorable outcome from the recent investigation on the Model S battery fires by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) investigation, strong demand in China, where the company recently opened its first retail store, and an expected improvement in margins for the full fiscal year.

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Tesla Shares Rise on Favorable News of Mass Market Model

Shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA) jumped 5.6% yesterday to close at $147.4 after favorable news about its highly anticipated mass market model, along with reports of growth in its supercharger network allowing for coast-to-coast travel.

Details emerged yesterday, of German publication AutoBild’s interview of Tesla’s Head of Design Franz von Holzhausen, who confirmed that the mass market Model E was in advanced stages of development. The car will likely be revealed at the 2015 Detroit Auto Show and will go into production in 2016. It is expected to be half the price of the current Model S and the upcoming Model X crossover vehicle, and will compete with cars like the BMW 3 Series and Mercedes-Benz C-Class and CLA. Both BMW (BAMXY) and Daimler (DDAIY) are working on electric versions of their entry-level models to capitalize on the growth of the battery electric vehicle market.

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Tesla Caps Off Great Week With 5-Star Safety Rating from US Regulator

It’s been a positive week for investors concerned about Tesla Motors (TSLA). The National Highway Transport Safety Administration (NHTSA) reaffirmed its five-star safety rating on Tesla’s Model S electric vehicle. The carmaker released a statement right after that, confirming the reiterated rating of the NHTSA.

The news is reassuring for investors and Tesla fans, given the recent concerns over battery fires that have plagued the Model S. Tesla shares are up more than 6% since then, to close at $151.4, and despite the fact that the statement also mentioned that the Model S was still under investigation by the NHTSA for the battery fire incidents.

The share price of Tesla Motors has dropped by almost a third from its peak of $193 in early October, after three battery fires were reported in a span of six weeks. The fires were caused by a rupture in the battery enclosures. Two of those incidents occurred state-side, while the third was in Mexico. That incident is not under investigation since it was the result of the vehicle hitting a concrete barrier. CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly stated that owners of the Model S are five times less likely to experience a vehicle fire than owners of an average gasoline car.

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Tesla Motors – Stock Drivers in 2014

Headquartered in Palo Alto, California, Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) is currently the largest automaker that deals solely in all-electric vehicles. It was founded in 2003 by billionaire CEO Elon Musk, who currently owns 23% of its outstanding shares.

Over time, Tesla has positioned itself as a major player in the battery electric vehicle (BEV) market, which looks set to witness a surge in demand. Global BEV sales have picked up, and an increasing number of large automakers will soon be introducing their own BEV models in the market.

Tesla stock posted tremendous returns last year, which was great for investors who believed in its all-electric vehicles and bought into the company in 2012. However, the naysayers have stuck to their guns, and short interest in Tesla is quite high right now – nearly 39% of the total float.

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